New Hampshire Primary predictions and observations

New Hampshire, as you probably know, holds its presidential primary election tomorrow.

I've been following both the Democratic and Republican campaigns sporadically over break, and especially the televised Republican debates.

On the Democrat side, it's been surprising to witness the emergence of a serious Obama candidacy, and it looks like he is all but assured a double-digit victory tomorrow, which puts him in very good stead leading up to the the "super Tuesday" primaries in early February. But he and Hillary will still have plenty of time to argue which of them is more of a pro-abort. Edwards isn't going anywhere since he failed to decisively win the Iowa caucus. While mostly apathetic about who gets the Democratic nomination, I can make two related observations:

• Clinton seems more offensive to principles of Catholic social teaching than Obama, but is also less likely to win in a general election than Obama.
• Obama seems slightly less offensive to principles of Catholic social teaching than Clinton, but is also more likely to win in a general election against a Republican candidate.

Now, this doesn't mean I'm a republican. Ron Paul still seems a defensible choice, and far more palatable than the other republican alternatives. I'm just torn as to whether I'd like to see a Clinton candidacy, and her high negatives sink her nomination, or a Obama candidacy, which while slightly less problematic in theory, has a far higher chance of winning (I think the republicans are rightly terrified of an Obama candidacy).

On the republican side, things remain jumbled. McCain appears to be edging out Romney in the pre-election day polling, but Romney did very well in last night's debates and I think will rally in the 11th hour. I'll update this post later this evening with my other thoughts. In the meantime, consider this something to get the combox humming.

update: okay, as for the republican side: I guess things will gain a little clarity tomorrow, but really it's such a mess and none of the "front-runners" appeal to me. I would say, however, that Mitt Romney is too often maligned by his opponents. Maybe he's doing a wonderful job of pulling the wool over my eyes, but I symapthize with him. I mean - can we please stop giving him a hard time for becoming pro-life?! Talk about the weakest argument ever.

Time will tell.