Update: Papists and Today's Pennsylvania Primary

update, 11:30PM:

Clinton wins PA by about 10 points. So that means she's staying in the race.

As Deal notes, Catholics went for Clinton big time, but had a less-than-expected showing.

update, 6:30PM:

early word out of PA is that Clinton has narrowly won the state over Obama 52-48.

if true, that's a much slimmer margin than she was hoping for, and now she needs Indiana.

more:

• Analysis: Philadelphia area key to winning state
• Exit polls: New Dems break for Obama, late deciders for Clinton

update, 3:30PM:

• "The former first [lady] is favored to win today's contest, but polls show a wide range of possible victory margins, and it's unclear what impact thousands of newly registered voters will have on the race. Many political observers believe she must win by double-digits here or face pressure to bow out." (MSNBC First Read)

Voter turn out is high today, aided by good weather.

• "The margin in the popular vote ultimately will be secondary to how Pennsylvania affects the battle for pledged delegates," Dan Balz writes in The Washington Post. "Clinton badly needs to make up ground in the delegate fight and, given the way they're distributed, that could be difficult." (ABC NEWS The Note)

If not impossible - at least for anyone who isn't named Clinton.

original post:

Tomorrow (Tuesday the 22nd), Pennsylvania is holding its democratic primary.

How much do Catholics figure in this primary? Plenty.

Estimates for the percentage of Catholics who will participate in the election run as high as 40%, which is above the state's overall demographic (where Catholics make up about ~30% of the population). This still means that Catholics are the largest voting block in Pennsylvania by religion. It seems safe to guess that 1/3 of the voters tomorrow will be Catholic.

This is good news for Clinton, who normally wins more Catholics than Obama.

Obama is wise to this situation, however, and he has formed a "Catholic advisory council", that Deal Hudson takes a look at here. The Catholic vote is crucial to Obama's long-term prospects. As CNN's Ed Henry notes, Catholics have picked the winner "in eight of the last nine presidential elections."

Will Pope Benedict's recent trip to the U.S. have an effect on voting or show up in the polls? It's very unlikely. Matt Drudge has reported that the Clinton campaign has internal polling numbers showing her with an 11-point lead going into tomorrow, but that up-tick I'm sure is due to many factors.

So, what do you think? I'll keep this thread updated tomorrow so concentrate the comments here.