On Tuesday the 6th (also Mardi Gras, which should make for a good party), 21 republican and 20 democratic contests will take place across the United States. It's the closest thing to a "national primary" in the nation's history. Here's my quick summary of the DNC/GOP state of the union.
On the republican side, McCain and Romney are tied in national polling at 30%, with Huckabee trailing 3rd at 21%, and Ron Paul hovering somewhere around 5%,
as Rasmussen reports.
However, the nature of most republican primaries is that the winner takes all delegates, leaving nothing for even second place, which is good news for McCain, who holds significant or small leads over Romney in almost every state,
as this table illustrates. Romney is closest in California, which is good news because it has the most number of delegates. He is very far behind in New York,
but not giving up.
Thus, after Super Tuesday, if McCain is able to hold onto his slim leads and sweep those contests, he will be almost unstoppable through the rest of the voting.
On the democratic side, as a switch from the earlier trends, the race actually has the potential to remain more cloudy and undecided than the republican situation. This confusion is caused by the fact that democrat primaries grant delegates proportional to votes, and so while
Obama trails Clinton in national polling 37-45%, those numbers are tightening up, and a string of second place finishes for Obama would not disqualify him to the degree it would in the republican system. Indeed, he is making fast gains in delegate-rich California, while far behind in New York.
Get the full breakdown of the polling here.Therefore, after Super Tuesday, Hillary would still have to fight very hard to establish herself definitively as the democratic nominee. Matters are further occluded because the democrats allow certain "superdelegates" to vote at the convention who are not tied to any particular state, making them essentially free agents (I personally don't understand how this system doesn't get close to disenfranchising the democratic voter, but that could be purely my own ignorance). These delegates count for 800 votes.
To review: McCain, barring a 11th-hour surge by Romney, can have the nomination all but won, while Clinton can at best hope to re-establish herself as the default choice over Obama.
Something to consider before we put all this out of our mind and receive our ashes the day after.
Labels: 2008 presidential race, barack obama, commentary, hillary clinton, john mccain, mitt romney