Mitt Romney Out of Presidential Race - and I was there.

Hectic day today, but I just came from CPAC (as an observer) where I personally witnessed Mitt Romney give (what turned out to be) his concession speech. I was very impressed with it, personally, and before he made the announcement, I couldn't quite figure out why he appeared to be misty-eyed. Well, now we know.

MSM coverage:

• AP: Romney Suspends Presidential Campaign
• Time Magazine's The Page
• Transcript of his withdrawing from the race speech
• Politico commentary
• McCain meanwhile, faces a tough crowd at CPAC
• "Huckabee vows to press on..."

Obligations preclude any comments now. I'll try to upload pics later. Laura Ingraham introduced him.

update: the rest of CPAC should be fascinating, especially when watching the supporter dynamics of Romney and McCain morph and shift in real time with Romney's exit and McCain's bidding for conservative support.

AmP's Super Election Tuesday peremptory comments

On Tuesday the 6th (also Mardi Gras, which should make for a good party), 21 republican and 20 democratic contests will take place across the United States. It's the closest thing to a "national primary" in the nation's history. Here's my quick summary of the DNC/GOP state of the union.

On the republican side, McCain and Romney are tied in national polling at 30%, with Huckabee trailing 3rd at 21%, and Ron Paul hovering somewhere around 5%, as Rasmussen reports.

However, the nature of most republican primaries is that the winner takes all delegates, leaving nothing for even second place, which is good news for McCain, who holds significant or small leads over Romney in almost every state, as this table illustrates. Romney is closest in California, which is good news because it has the most number of delegates. He is very far behind in New York, but not giving up.

Thus, after Super Tuesday, if McCain is able to hold onto his slim leads and sweep those contests, he will be almost unstoppable through the rest of the voting.

On the democratic side, as a switch from the earlier trends, the race actually has the potential to remain more cloudy and undecided than the republican situation. This confusion is caused by the fact that democrat primaries grant delegates proportional to votes, and so while Obama trails Clinton in national polling 37-45%, those numbers are tightening up, and a string of second place finishes for Obama would not disqualify him to the degree it would in the republican system. Indeed, he is making fast gains in delegate-rich California, while far behind in New York. Get the full breakdown of the polling here.

Therefore, after Super Tuesday, Hillary would still have to fight very hard to establish herself definitively as the democratic nominee. Matters are further occluded because the democrats allow certain "superdelegates" to vote at the convention who are not tied to any particular state, making them essentially free agents (I personally don't understand how this system doesn't get close to disenfranchising the democratic voter, but that could be purely my own ignorance). These delegates count for 800 votes.

To review: McCain, barring a 11th-hour surge by Romney, can have the nomination all but won, while Clinton can at best hope to re-establish herself as the default choice over Obama.

Something to consider before we put all this out of our mind and receive our ashes the day after.

Breaking: Tom Monaghan endorses Mitt Romney

Tom Monaghan is the pizza tycoon who founded Domino's Pizza. While he is currently building a town and school in Naples, FL, he started his business and spent his career in Michigan, where Mitt Romney desperately needs a win come next Tuesday's primary.

Ironically, however, Monaghan has managed to rub so many Michiganders the wrong way that I can't forsee that his endorsement would help the Romney campaign very much at all. Indeed, it might hinder.

On this point, I disagree strongly with Hugh Hewitt who says that "Monaghan's decision to announce today is a clear signal to social conservatives that it is time to chose and get in the game" or again when he says that Monaghan is "leading the way that social conservatives should follow."

Frankly, I don't know anyone who considers Monaghan a political weathervane, let alone a mover and shaker. Monaghan has completely uprooted his empire from Michigan and gone south to Florida. And such a move can hardly be understood as a resounding vote of confidence in Michigan.

Monaghan's last endorsement, of pro-life Senator Sam Brownback, went promptly nowhere.

From the press release:

[Monaghan:] "It is an honor for me to endorse Governor Mitt Romney for President. He is a proven leader and has demonstrated his effectiveness in multiple arenas - in his successful business ventures, the running of the Olympics and in politics. I had first hand experience of Mitt's effectiveness and expertise during the sale of Domino's Pizza to Bain Capital," said Tom Monaghan. "Most importantly, Governor Romney is a man of principle. As someone who values the importance of faith in one's life, I recognize in Mitt his deep religious convictions which will serve him well in facing the critical moral issues facing our society. I believe he will stand firm on the pro-life issues and for the traditional family values that our country was founded on and which are so critical to the future of our nation."

With today's announcement, Governor Romney said, "Having known Tom since 1998, I am proud to have his support in this critical election. As a successful business man, he has also been a strong supporter of conservative causes across the country. His philanthropic work has touched the lives of millions."

I wonder who initiated the endorsement - Romney or Monaghan? I'm betting Romney.

Google news feed.

Romney's speech: text, links, commentary

Busy day for me, so I can't comment at present. Here's the goods:

• Video excerpt
• Full text
• Reuters: Romney vows Mormon church would not run White House
• AssociatedPress: Romney: No Religious Test for President
• WashTimes: Romney notes 'common creed'

He only says the word "mormon" once. I think that tells plenty.

update: Jimmy Akin ain't impressed.

Romney pulls a Kennedy

Plenty of coverage to follow, but in the meantime, here's the superlink. He will speak Thursday.

• Via Mark Shea, "Drawing the Line for Mormons - A Closer Look at the LDS Church"

Really, there's far too much pre-coverage to report. Best to just sit tight and see what happens.

Knowing Romney, I would estimate "precious little." But if he feels he's playing for keeps, who knows?